Strategic analysis and planning. These are periodic meetings, strategic sessions of participants, which are held within the framework of NAIU and are dedicated to forecasting the state of the risk insurance market and vectors of its development.
Thus, another strategic session devoted to forecasting the risk insurance market for the end of 2023 was held recently.
At such meetings, we usually talk about the current state of the insurance market and discuss factors that may affect certain types of insurance. The trends of 2022 and 2023 were taken into account as a basis for forecasting, with distribution into the retail and corporate segments.
So, let us hasten to share with you the results of our vision.
According to the results of the first half of 2023, the insurance market grew by almost 25%, so the tendency towards gradual recovery is maintained.
In recent years, the first 5 places have traditionally been occupied by motor types of insurance (Motor Casco, OMTPL and Green Card), health insurance and property types.
We suggest to dwell on these species in more detail.
Therefore, Mototr Casco is forecast at the level of +20% both in terms of premiums and insurance contracts. In our opinion, this indicator is due to the revitalization of the new car sales market, as well as the growing demand and expansion of offers for the so-called “mini casco” programs.
When discussing mandatory motor types, such as OMTPL for the Green Card, taking into account the growing average premium, which is directly related to inflationary processes in Ukraine, we expect a growth of +20% for OMTPL, and for the Green Card it is closer to +30%.
We associate the growth of the Green Card not only with inflation, but also with a possible price increase, due to the fact that insurers have to adjust prices taking into account the growth of the average payment due to the change in the geography of our citizens’ stay in Europe. At the same time, we cautiously predict a decrease in the number of signed contracts within 5%.
Regarding health insurance, it is impossible to unequivocally indicate certain factors, except for inflation, and despite the slight growth (+4.6%), health insurance is confidently included in the TOP 5 types. This certainly reflects the ongoing process of relocation of enterprises from temporarily occupied territories, restoration of insurance for collectives, and therefore, in general, we expect an increase in the range of 11%.
As for property insurance, we see the preservation of trends in the growth of premiums from individuals, and therefore with the growing demand for such insurance (including from war risks) and the appearance of new offers, insurance programs on the market, we expect further growth within the 20- 25% We would like to remind you that according to the results of the first half of 2023, the receipt of premiums from individuals increased by 57% (+154 million UAH).
Separately, we offer to stop at cargo insurance. The NAIU community expects an increase in the same limits (20-25%) as property types, taking into account a certain recovery, and in some places an increase in exports of some product groups by more than 100% (compared to the first half of 2022). However, in the corporate segment, we remain less optimistic, because the recovery of the “global programs” of insurance is not happening as quickly as we would like, caused in our opinion by the security factor and the lack of full-fledged reinsurance in war conditions.
Unfortunately, with the impact of the war, we have negative consequences and trends in the insurance market for such types as aviation insurance, travel insurance, and therefore we predict a slow recovery and closely monitor changes in the market.
Of course, this forecast is not accurate or absolutely correct, but it can definitely serve as a certain signpost and a direction in which you can orient yourself, because the NAIU community unites insurers of different types of business and each of the participants is an expert.
Those who want to see our forecast in numbers are invited to visit our website.
